True Goal Value
A new way to measure a goal's real impact, factoring in context, opponent, and what's at stake. Calculate the TGV of any goal below.
TGV Calculator
What Is the True Goal Value (TGV)?
Not all goals are created equal.
Some goals change the course of football history — others, scored in meaningless moments or one-sided matches, are soon forgotten. The True Goal Value (TGV) is a new metric that captures the real impact of a goal based on the context in which it was scored.
TGV helps you answer the question:
“How important was this
goal, really?”
Unlike raw goal counts, TGV weighs each goal by how decisive, difficult, and meaningful it was. A dramatic equalizer in a World Cup final? Extremely valuable. A 5th goal in a 6–0 friendly? Not so much.
How Is TGV Calculated?
The TGV score is calculated using five key factors:
1. Match Importance (MIM)
Each match has a different weight depending on what’s at stake.
- A World Cup final is worth much more than a preseason friendly.
- The more important the match, the higher the base multiplier (from 0.5 to 4.0).
2. Goal Context
The value of a goal depends heavily on the match situation:
- Equalizers and go-ahead goals are worth the most.
- Goals that extend a lead up to 3 and goals that close the gap 2 or less are worth slightly less.
- Goals scored in dead games (3+ goal lead) are worth significantly less.
- A time factor boosts goals scored late in tight matches.
3. Opponent Relative Strength
Scoring against stronger opponents is harder — and more valuable.
- This is a slider comparing your team’s strength to the opponent’s.
- Equal strength = 1.0, stronger team = 2.0+, etc.
4. Rivalry Modifier
Some goals matter more because of the emotion behind them.
- Was it a derby? A historic rivalry? A grudge match?
Real-World Examples
Example 1: Kylian Mbappé’s Equalizer – 2022 World Cup Final
Match: Argentina vs France (3–3, Argentina won on
penalties)
Minute: 81st
Score before the goal: France 1 – 2 Argentina
MIM: 4.0 | RSC: 1.0 | Rivalry: 1.0
Actual TGV: 5.30
➡️ This was an extremely high-value goal: it brought France back from the brink in the biggest match on Earth.
Example 2: Sergio Ramos – 2014 Champions League Final
Match: Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid (4–1 AET)
Minute: 93rd
Score before the goal: Real Madrid 0 – 1 Atlético
MIM: 3.5 | RSC: 1.0 | Rivalry: 1.2 (Madrid derby)
Actual TGV: 6.72
➡️ One of the most iconic late goals in history. Without it, Real Madrid would not have lifted their 10th Champions League title.
Example 3: Mohamed Salah – 2019 Champions League Final (Penalty)
Match: Liverpool vs Tottenham (2–0)
Minute: 2nd
Score before the goal: 0 – 0
MIM: 3.5 | RSC: 1.0 | Rivalry: 1.1
Actual TGV: 3.85
➡️ Opened the scoring in a Champions League final. Important goal, but early enough that the match still had time to change.
Obviously this is a work-in-progress, and certainly not perfect. That is why I am sharing it, so we can try to make it better. I really believe this is a good idea, and could help evaluate how important a goal is. Feel free to leave a message (below or on twitter) to tell me what you think, and if you have improvement ideas for example. I'll keep updating the site, and add a page explaining how this all works!